Speculation as a fine art

- An Early Trend Follower

by Dickson G. Watts.

Mr. Watts was President of the New York Cotton Exchange between 1878 and 1880. For all those that whine today about supposed changing markets, keep in mind Mr. Watts is from the 19th century, a time long before the CNBC daily hype machine.

What is Speculation?

Before entering on our inquiry, before considering the rules of our art, we will examine the subject in the abstract. Is speculation right? It may be questioned, tried by the highest standards, whether any trade where an exact equivalent is not given can be right. But as society is now organized speculation seems a necessity.

Is there any difference between speculation and gambling? The terms are often used interchangeably, but speculation presupposes intellectual effort; gambling, blind chance. Accurately to define the two is difficult; all definitions are difficult. Wit and humor, for instance, can be defined; but notwithstanding the most subtle distinction, wit and humor blend, run into each other. This is true of speculation and gambling. The former has some of the elements of chance; the latter some of the elements of reason. We define as best we can. Speculation is a venture based upon calculation. Gambling is a venture without calculation. The law makes this distinction; it sustains speculation and condemns gambling.

All business is more or less speculation. The term speculation, however, is commonly restricted to business of exceptional uncertainty. The uninitiated believe that chance is so large a part of speculation that it is subject to no rules, is governed by no laws. This is a serious error. We propose in this article to point out some of the laws in this realm.

There is no royal road to success in speculation. We do not undertake, and it would be worse than folly to undertake, to show how money can be made. Those who make for themselves or others an infallible plan delude themselves and others. Our effort will be to set for the great underlying principles of the "art" the application of which must depend on circumstances, the time and the man.

Let us first consider the qualities essential to the equipment of a speculator. We name them: Self-reliance, judgement, courage, prudence, pliability.

1. Self-reliance:

A man must think for himself, must follow his own convictions. George MacDonald says: "A man cannot have another man's ideas any more than he can have another man's soul or another man's body." Self-trust is the foundation of successful effort.

2. Judgement:

That equipoise, that nice adjustment of the facilities one to the other, which is called good judgement, is an essential to the speculator.

3. Courage:

That is, confidence to act on the decisions of the mind. In speculation there is value in Mirabeau's dictum: Be bold, still be bold; always be bold."

4. Prudence:

The power of measuring the danger, together with a certain alertness and watchfulness, is very important. There should be a balance of these two, Prudence and Courage; Prudence in contemplation, Courage in execution. Lord Bacon says: "In meditation all dangers should be seen; in execution one, unless very formidable." Connected with these qualities, properly an outgrowth of them, is a third, viz: promptness. The mind convinced, the act should follow. In the words of Macbeth: "Henceforth the very firstlings of my heart shall be the firstlings of my hand." Think, act, promptly.

5. Pliability:

The ability to change an opinion, the power of revision. "He who observes," says Emerson, "and observes again, is always formidable."

The qualifications named are necessary to the makeup of a speculator, but they must be in well-balanced combination. A deficiency or an overplus of one quality will destroy the effectiveness of all. The possession of such faculties, in a proper adjustment is, of course, uncommon. In speculation, as in life, few succeed, many fail.

Source: Speculation as A Fine Art by Dickson G. Watts

The Fiat Money System - Dr. Bill Veith in studio w/ Alex Jones

Dr. Bill Veith and Alex Jones have a fantastic discussion about the fiat money system in place and controlled by the international banking cartel. Dr. Veith's understanding of the economic system is impeccable and shows in the clarity in which he presents this knowledge. He lays out in layman's terms how the economy is manipulated and how one can protect oneself in an economic colapse by owning gold and silver coins; tangible wealth that can not be deflated. A must see for anyone interested in learning about taking the power back from the illuminati masters of deception.

The Most Important Investment Principle of All

by Porter Stansberry

What I’m going to show you in today’s essay is, I believe, the most important investment principle you’ll ever learn.

If you follow it, as I do with my own money, you will never again have to worry about losing lots of money on any single investment. You will always know when to sell. And you will know how much money you should be investing in the first place.

For many years, I have maintained that 90% of the profits I make come from these “money managing” strategies. Most people think that because I’m a stock picker, my market-beating results stem from fundamental research and the advantage this knowledge gives me.
It’s true: Knowing a lot about a group of stocks helps you find the right ones to invest in, but this will only contribute about 10% of your gains over time. Most of the gains in stocks come from capturing swings in market sentiment.

I’ve found these swings to be, in large measure, impossible to predict. Instead, by using a simple, but reliable, strategy that I outline below, I have found I’m able to profit from the market’s upswings while strictly limiting my downside exposure.

This strategy is actually a two-step process of investing that I follow with every stock, bond, or currency.

Step #1: Letting your winners run and cutting your losses short.

The first and most important principle of speculation is to let your winners run and cut your losses short. And even though the principle is well known, almost no one actually uses it. It’s just too hard emotionally.
When you’ve got profits on the table, every urge tells you “take ’em.” When you’ve got big, ugly losses staring back at you from your account ledger, every emotion says, “hold on – they aren’t losses until you take them.”
Don’t do it. Instead, cut your losers early and often. Remember that you have to have capital to make more money. Nothing sets you back like a large loss. Take many small losses and no big ones and you’ll die a rich man. You can read exactly how to cut your losses with “trailing stops” here.

Step #2: How much to invest in any single investment.

The second principle that applies to every investment has to do with diversified money management.
It doesn’t matter what you’re trading, or investing in. You shouldn’t put too many eggs in any one basket.

As a rule, I never put more than 5% of my total portfolio in any single investment idea.
The whole purpose of using a trailing stop is to prevent what I call a catastrophic loss. A catastrophic loss occurs when any single position in your investment portfolio experiences losses large enough to wipe out your other gains and/or jeopardize your livelihood.
One of the biggest differences between professional investors and amateur investors is the size of their positions relative to their total portfolio. Professionals consider a 2%-3% position enormous. Having 5% of your money in any one position is considered “gun slinging” by most professionals.

Meanwhile, at conferences, when I tell investors they should never allocate more than 4% of their portfolio to any stock initially, people look at me as if I’m nuts.
In fact, I would bet that 99 out of 100 individual investors wouldn’t even know how much money they can afford to invest in a given stock, limiting the position to only 4% of their portfolio. Instead, almost all individual investors measure their position sizes in terms of shares, typically round numbers, i.e. “I own 50 shares.”

Think like a pro – think about your positions as a percentage of your portfolio, not as a number of shares. Know the stop loss points of all your positions, at all times.
This doesn’t mean you have to check the stock tables every day.
Follow this two-step principle – by cutting your losing positions, and by minimizing your positions to no more than 4% of your overall portfolio - and I promise you, you’ll see better investment results, immediately.

Good investing,

Porter Stansberry

Pachelbel's Canon Rock

- Guitar work, smooth as silk !

The Empire has no clothes

by Puru Saxena

The United States is widely adored as the world's greatest empire; few realize that the empire has no clothes. As the masses look up to the nation in admiration, they are fooled into believing that it is swimming in wealth; the reality being that it is up to its eyeballs in debt. The U.S. economy is living on borrowed time and judgment day is inevitable. No nation in history has ever managed to escape such economic imbalances, and I suspect the United States won't get away with it either. Let's take alook at how this imaginary cloak has been woven:

The economic recovery since the 2001 recession has been manufactured byexcessive credit-growth and consumption. For the first time ever, acentral bank has purposely engineered a credit bubble with the intentionof bringing artificial prosperity via rising asset-prices. The Federal Reserve dropped interest-rates and the majority of Americans became the proverbial kids in the candy store, unable to resist the temptation of cheap credit. This is evident from the fact that over the past six years,U.S. household debt soared from $6.99 trillion to almost $12 trillion - a staggering increase of 70%!

However, some of today's economists discard this record debt-explosion as irrelevant because the net-worth of U.S. households over the same periodhas surged from $42 trillion, to roughly $54 trillion (largely due to thehousing boom). In other words, due to rampant credit and leverage in the economy, asset-prices have risen much more rapidly than debt levels. But the key question is whether this is sustainable - and at what cost?

In my opinion, asset-prices can continue to rise for a long time if there are willing borrowers - and a central bank armed with an endless supply ofcredit. However, you have to understand that rising asset-prices only givethe illusion of prosperity. The truth is, rapid monetary inflation and credit growth always impoverish a society as money becomes abundant - and therefore less valuable. So, everyone may feel richer as their homes andstock portfolios appreciate in value, but it'd be a mistake to confuse rising asset-prices in an economy with real wealth creation. After all,wealth is a relative concept and if everyone else's homes have also risenin value, how wealthy have you really become?

Given the levels of debt in the United States, I have no doubt that the Federal Reserve wants to keep the game going for as long as possible. Itwill achieve this by continuing to inflate the supply of money and credit.Under this scenario, the U.S. dollar will surely depreciate against other major world currencies, and especially against precious metals whose supply can't be increased at the same pace.

In order to assess the U.S. economy's prospects, the most important issue to understand is that the recent economic expansion hasn't been typical.The U.S. wage growth has been extremely poor and the capital spending by American companies has also been dismal. In fact, real disposable income growth is now almost zero, and over the past five years, capital spending has increased by a paltry 12%. So far, the U.S. consumer alone has carriedthe baton through record-high indebtedness and consumer spending; with home prices no longer appreciating, you have to wonder where the future borrowing-power will come from.

In my view, the United States looks more and more like a bubble economy, a banana republic of some sorts, which is desperate for ever-rising asset-prices for its very survival. Should American home and stock prices stall, let alone decline, the fate of this great bubble will be sealed. Depreciating asset-prices will act like a dagger in the heart of this artificial recovery, so the Federal Reserve must continue to inflate at all costs.

In the United States, the total debt as a percentage of GDP is currently above 300% and at an all-time high. It is worth noting that the last time the United States faced a meaningful contraction in debt relative to the size of its economy, it coincided with the depression years of the 1930's.So, you can bet your farm that Mr. Bernanke & Co. will try their best to avoid a repeat of such a disaster by continuing to aid deficit spending through their ultra-loose monetary policies.

With the U.S. consumer leveraged to the hilt, the fate of the U.S. economy now lies with its corporations and its government. For sure, American companies have recently registered great profits and are flush with cash, however; so far they haven't shown any willingness to spend their money - capital spending is non-existent and wages haven't increased in line with the inflation-rate. At least the American government has been more "responsible" by contributing to the economy through the deficit spending program surrounding the various wars being fought - albeit under false pretences!

The world is littered with statistics which, more often than not, are misleading and distort the truth. In this regard, the "official" statistics released by the U.S. establishment are no different. Take the U.S. budget for example. The budget reported in the media claims that the deficit was reduced to $319 billion in 2005. However, the Financial Report issued by the Department of Treasury says it was $760 billion, or over twice as large.

"But how come?" you may wonder. It is fascinating to note that the U.S.budget process meant for general reporting uses accounting procedures that ignore long-term, future obligations such as Social Security and Medicare.The United States keeps two sets of books, only wanting the world to see one of them. The "President's Budget," issued by the Office of Management and Budget and used to develop the annual budget, is based on cashaccounting. The other set of accounts, the "Financial Report of the UnitedStates," issued by the Department of the Treasury, uses a more realistic accrual-basis accounting. It is interesting to note that the U.S. federallaw requires ALL businesses with revenues in excess of $5 million to use accrual accounting, yet the budget figures released to the public don't follow this rule. According to the financial report issued by the U.S.Treasury which takes into account the future obligations of the federal government, the U.S. budget deficit is now at a record-high!

Next, let's review the strange U.S. unemployment numbers released in the media. Since the end of the recession in November 2001, reportedemployment growth is up moderately, which makes it the worst performance during any post-war economic recovery. However, closer inspection reveals that even this small reported growth in employment is an absolute joke.The reported official unemployment figures don't include those peoplewho've given up looking for a job (due to non-availability of jobs),joined a university or taken a part-time job since they can't findfull-time employment. When you add all these people, the real rate of unemployment is closer to 10%.

Finally, the biggest "cover-up" award must go to the officials whodetermine the Consumer Price and the Producer Price Indices (CPI and PPI).These "inflation-barometers" are a total fraud! Remember, the Federal Reserve's biggest motive is to conceal the ongoing inflation and manage the inflation expectations, or else the viability of the Federal Reserve itself may come into question. Therefore, both the consumer and producer prices are massaged, seasonally and hedonistically adjusted to keep inflationary fears under check. So, by keeping the CPI and PPI artificially suppressed via voodoo accounting and understating the inflation menace, the Federal Reserve maintains the public's confidence inthe US dollar as a great store of value. After all, as long as the masses continue to believe in the "inflation-controlling" powers of the Federal Reserve and the other central banks, the more inflation and credit they can create!

In summary, the U.S. economy isn't in good health and eventually themonetary stimulus and injections of liquidity will fail to revive this terminally ill patient. Accordingly, I advise you to minimize your exposure to American assets. On other hand, tangible assets (especially precious metals) and mining stocks represent a great opportunity for the medium to long-term investor. Despite the recent pullback, the long-termbull-market is still intact and I anticipate a rally over the coming six to eight months. Accordingly, this is an ideal time to add to your positions in precious metals as well as mining and commodity-producing companies.

Regards,

Puru Saxena

Editor's Note: Puru Saxena is the editor and publisher of Money Matters,an economic and financial publication available at www.purusaxena.com
An investment adviser based in Hong Kong, he is a regular guest on CNN,BBC World, CNBC, Bloomberg TV & Radio, NDTV, RTHK Radio 3 and writes forseveral newspapers and financial journals. The above is an excerpt from Money Matters, a monthly economic publication, which highlights extraordinary investment opportunities inall major markets. In addition to the monthly reports, subscribers also benefit from timely and concise "Email Updates", which are sent out when an important development in the capital markets warrants immediate attention.

JanaGanaMana -

Inspiring like no other !